Samsung QLED TV Super Bowl

Global TV Shipments to Fall Below 197M Units, Says TrendForce

Research firm TrendForce predicts that global TV shipments will fall to below 197 million units for the first time in 2023, though slight growth of 0.2% is expected in 2024.

According to TrendForce’s latest research, despite a decrease in the CPI in Europe and the U.S. this year, consumer budgets are still constrained due to the current high-interest-rate environment. The real estate bubble in China, meanwhile, has suppressed TV demand. What’s more, a significant increase in TV panel prices this year has led brands to scale down promotional events, resulting in the decline in global TV shipments that marks a 2.1% year-over-year decrease.

TrendForce points out that TV shipments have shown quarter-over-quarter growth this year. However, the traditional peak Q4 season only saw a growth rate of 4.7%. With just 54.55 million units shipped and an overall decline of 1.7% YoY, this marks the lowest in nearly a decade of both growth momentum and shipment volumes. 

Since the easing of the pandemic in Europe and the U.S. in 2021, there has been a noticeable reduction in Q4 TV shipments in both 2022 and 2023. This suggests that the demand for TVs has been prematurely depleted, with changes in consumer habits and economic uncertainty further hindering shipment growth.

Hisense Laser TV

Market share for the top five brands is projected to increase by 1.7 percentage points, with Hisense and TCL emerging as the biggest winners. Samsung Electronics continues to lead in TV shipments this year, with an estimated 36.3 million units, a 9.8% decrease YoY and a significant market share reduction of 1.2 percentage points to 18.5%. Affected by high inflation in Europe and America, Samsung faced challenges in shipping mid to high-end products, with a decline in shipments of 8K, Mini LED, and QLED TVs. However, QD OLED TVs, supported by the group’s SDC panels, have experienced a 153% increase in shipments to 890,000 units, boosting Samsung’s OLED TV market share to 16.6%.

Hisense and TCL, ranked second and third, have achieved shipments of 27 million and 26.2 million units, up 12.4% and 16.3% YoY, respectively. Both Chinese brands have successfully raised their shipments volumes and market shares through low-cost export market strategies and localized production. Conversely, LG Electronics faced a downturn in OLED TV sales, with a nearly 30% YoY decline, leading to a 7.4% decrease in overall shipments to 22.91 million units.

In 2024, TV manufacturers aim to improve profitability by increasing the proportion of large-sized products and accelerating the phasing out of loss-making models. The Paris Olympics and UEFA Euro 2024 are expected to support a slight growth of 0.2% in global TV shipments to 197 million units next year.

However, as panel makers adopt production and pricing control strategies, TV panel prices are unlikely to fall below cash costs, says TrendForce. The company believes this will restrict the growth of generic brands and pose a significant challenge to any substantial increase in global TV shipments. If the global economy worsens due to geopolitical conflicts or other unforeseen factors, there is a potential risk of a decline in total TV shipments for 2024.